At present, China's logistics industry has shifted from high-speed growth to a new stage of high-quality development. While facing challenges such as insufficient demand, weakened expectations, and disaster impacts, the logistics industry will also usher in new opportunities such as large AI models, digitalization, and cross-border markets. What are the prospects and directions for the development of China's logistics industry this year? The China Transport Research Institute of Tongji University has analyzed five major trends in the development of the logistics industry, hoping to provide references for the industry.
01. The development potential of emerging logistics sub-sectors is huge.
The high-quality development of the logistics industry is the only way to meet the diversified and specialized modern logistics service needs of the modern industrial system. With the support of technologies such as big data, cloud computing, and artificial intelligence, the "logistics as a service" (LaaS) business centered on services and solutions will drive the deep integration of the logistics industry with manufacturing and commerce, forming a profitable model for the logistics industry with industrial characteristics. Emerging sub-sectors such as cold chain logistics, instant logistics, digital freight transportation, cross-border e-commerce, and low-altitude logistics will usher in rapid development as they deeply integrate with industries.
02. ESG system becomes a new standard for logistics.
Driven by policies and the market in both directions, the green and low-carbon transformation of the logistics industry is progressing rapidly. In recent years, logistics enterprises such as Sinotrans, SF Express, and JD.com have taken the initiative to lead the industry's green innovation from the perspectives of social responsibility and enterprise sustainable development needs, and have achieved outstanding results. In the future, logistics enterprises will start from ESG (environmental, social, and governance) construction and further deepen the exploration of specific practices of ESG, carry out multiple practices such as green infrastructure investment and construction, green operation, green technology research and development, and product innovation, and actively participate in improving the construction of ESG evaluation standard systems. The government, industry, and society will start from ESG governance and continuously establish and improve multiple guarantee systems such as ESG supervision, rating, investment and financing, providing a continuous source of power for the green and low-carbon development of the logistics industry.
03. Improving logistics resilience is extremely urgent.
In the context where high-frequency and high-loss impacts such as epidemics, natural disasters, and regional conflicts have become the "new normal," improving the resilience of logistics supply chains has gradually become an international consensus. Developed countries such as the United States and Japan are actively building resilient transportation systems. China's "14th Five-Year Plan for Modern Logistics Development" proposes to "enhance the modern logistics safety and emergency response capabilities" and "strengthen the safety and resilience of modern supply chains." As China's economy accelerates its integration into the global market and the pace of "going global" further accelerates, the role of the logistics industry in ensuring supply and stabilizing chains will be more prominent. More and more enterprises are realizing the importance of supply chain resilience. For this reason, they are continuously strengthening the construction of capabilities such as supply chain security risk monitoring, early warning, prevention and control, and response, and developing emergency logistics, contributing Chinese wisdom and strength to maintaining the resilience and stability of global industrial chains and supply chains.
04. Data becomes a key element of new-quality productive forces.
At present, the new round of technological transformation led by large AI models has brought brand new opportunities for the development of the logistics industry. Technology enterprises have entered the field of logistics large models one after another. Through the integrated application with cutting-edge technologies such as big data, the Internet of Things, and logistics supply chain theories, more accurate demand forecasting is achieved, the operational efficiency and traceability of the supply chain are effectively improved, and new-quality productive forces are promoted to accelerate the empowerment of logistics value-added. With the continuous development of large AI model technology and the successive introduction of policy measures such as "Opinions on Establishing a Data Basic System to Better Play the Role of Data Elements" and the "Three-Year Action Plan for 'Data Elements ×' (2024-2026)," the role and value of data elements are more prominent, which will effectively empower the vigorous development of new operation methods such as supply chain digital platforms, smart warehousing, smart parks, and intelligent driving, improve the quality of logistics elements and the efficiency of resource allocation, and accelerate the digital and intelligent transformation of the logistics industry and the formation of new-quality productive forces in logistics.
05. Comprehensive service capabilities become the core competitiveness of overseas enterprises.
It has been 11 years since the Belt and Road Initiative was proposed. Chinese logistics enterprises are deeply embedded in the international logistics industrial system and have made positive contributions to basic logistics engineering construction, optimizing the quality of delivery services, and promoting the development of cross-border trade. Standing at a new starting point, the development momentum of capacity cooperation under the Belt and Road Initiative remains strong. The mission of helping to reconstruct the global value chain and enhance the stability of industrial chains and supply chains is more prominent. Logistics "going overseas" will enter a new stage of full-link business integration and global multi-point layout development. Promoting investment in high-quality logistics assets along the line, realizing the extension of international supply chain services, and building a ground business team will become the development focus of logistics "going overseas." By quickly establishing global logistics service capabilities, logistics enterprises will effectively unblock supply chains, serve industrial chains, and integrate into value chains.